From about 2020, Switzerland will lose one third of its electricity supply capacity when the privileged electricity import agreements with France expire and the nuclear power plants at Beznau I and II and Mühleberg are phased out at the end of their operational life cycle. Over the past ten years, electricity consumption in Switzerland has grown at an average rate of 1.3 percent per year. The current production capacity in Switzerland is projected to be outpaced by demand for electricity already in the next few winters, meaning that it will not be possible to supply Switzerland with electricity at all times. The situation during the winter is more critical because consumption is higher (due to heating, lighting, etc.) while a reduced volume of water in rivers results in lower electricity production levels.

As production capacity falls, the demand for electricity is rising – partly because electricity is being used as a replacement for fossil fuels (termed the substitution effect). Today, for example, oil-fired heating systems are increasingly being replaced with electrical heat circulation pumps that give the same level of heating comfort. While this reduces the overall energy demand, it results in an increase in electricity consumption. The same will apply in motor vehicle transportation as vehicles switch from combustion engines to electrical engines over the long term.