Axpo Energy Reports How Switzerland can secure its electricity supply

The Axpo Energy Reports are intended to contribute to the debate. Swiss energy policy is at a crossroads. If Switzerland continues as before, its electricity supply will be at risk – with enormous risks and costs for the economy and society. The challenge is particularly acute in winter. With the Axpo Energy Reports, Axpo presents a comprehensive analysis of which technologies can supply the necessary winter electricity, under what conditions, and at what cost. It makes clear that the challenge can be met – through a smart combination of several technologies. From the possible combinations, the reports present two scenarios, both of which enable a reliable, low-emission and affordable electricity supply. Both scenarios can be realised without an increase in subsidies. Regardless of these scenarios, the reports identify concrete and urgent need for action in four specific areas. 

Regardless of the path Switzerland ultimately chooses, Axpo recommends specific measures that are worthwhile in any case. These are ‘no-regret’ moves in the following key areas: 

• Implementation of appropriate regulatory measures to reduce political, regulatory and financial risks, thereby ensuring the continued operation of existing nuclear power plants. This would be the most cost-effective option for large volumes of winter energy and would give Switzerland time to expand other technologies. It would also create the possibility of incorporating technologies not yet available today at a later stage. Given the technical decisions that will be required in a few years’ time, there is a high degree of urgency. In the interests of technological openness, Axpo also supports the lifting of the ban on the construction of new nuclear power plants. 
• Structural adjustment of the support scheme towards technology-neutral, transparent and efficient support for winter electricity. Currently, support funds are not being used efficiently enough and primarily lead to the expansion of summer electricity production. However, the challenge lies in winter. 
• Accelerated expansion of wind power: Switzerland has high potential for wind energy – although each site must be assessed individually, as uncertainties exist due to the specific Swiss topography. Wind is particularly cost-effective for winter electricity. To harness this potential, the acceleration decree must be implemented consistently and swiftly at cantonal level. 
• Creation of suitable framework conditions for market-active gas-fired power stations (in particular waste heat utilisation, no double taxation of CO2). Gas-fired power stations are necessary to secure Switzerland’s future energy supply, but they emit CO2. Various solutions are under consideration in the long term for low-emission operation of gas-fired power stations; however, as things stand today, these are still associated with significant uncertainties regarding availability and costs. The required number of gas-fired power stations depends on the operating life of existing nuclear power stations, the pace of expansion of other technologies, and the development of electricity demand. Once the framework conditions are in place, gas-fired power stations can be built within a few years. They can contribute more or less to the electricity supply flexibly and in line with demand. 

If inaction continues regarding the expansion of winter electricity production, the only options remaining will be reserve power stations – in the worst case under emergency legislation – and rising electricity imports. 

The reports are the result of in-depth analysis carried out by around 50 experts from all Axpo business divisions, as well as collaboration with external institutions, including ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute. An advisory board was also involved, comprising members from across the political spectrum as well as experts from academia, consultancy firms, and environmental and industry associations.